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  • My Humble Guardian:Birthday Tribute to Dr. Nasir Sani Gwarzo, mni, NPOM by SALEH FAROUQ GAGARAWA

    There are men who lead.
    There are men who inspire.
    And then, there are rare souls who quietly watch over others—without noise, without spectacle, without seeking recognition.

    Dr. Nasir Sani Gwarzo belongs to that rare class.

    Not because of the titles that precede his name,
    Not because of the offices he has held,
    But because of something far more enduring.

    I have come to know him not just as a leader,
    But as something deeper,

    Something rarer.

    Not the kind that announces itself.
    Not the kind that demands loyalty.
    But the kind that earns it.

    Effortlessly,

    Silently,

    Completely.

    There is a particular kind of man who, when he sees you in distress, does not ask for attention,he simply notices.
    And that is who he is.

    I have seen it.
    I have felt it.

    Moments when words were not spoken, yet concern was evident.
    Moments when my silence was louder than my voice, and somehow, he heard it.

    There is something profoundly comforting about knowing that someone of his stature, his experience, his depth, still finds time to care.


    Not out of obligation.
    Not out of duty.
    But out of genuine concern for the well-being of others.

    He carries strength, but wears it gently.
    He holds wisdom, but shares it quietly.
    He commands respect, but lives in humility.

    And that humility.
    Is not performative.
    It is who he is.

    In a world where power often hardens people, he remains soft where it matters.


    In a system where many rise and forget others, he rises and remembers.
    In spaces where people seek recognition, he seeks impact.

    What defines him is not just what he has done,
    But how he makes people feel:

    Seen.
    Valued.
    Protected.

    For me, this is not just admiration.
    This is loyalty.

    The kind of loyalty that is not forced,
    Not negotiated,
    Not even spoken loudly,
    But felt deeply.

    Because when someone stands by you in moments of uncertainty,
    When someone worries about you when you least expect it,
    When someone chooses kindness in a world that often forgets it .

    You do not just respect them.
    You stand with them.

    Dr. Gwarzo is a man who strives not for applause,
    But for difference.
    Not for recognition,
    But for relevance.
    Not for legacy carved in stone,
    But for lives quietly improved.

    And perhaps that is why his impact is so profound.
    Because it is not always seen,
    But it is always felt.

    Today, as you mark another year,
    I do not celebrate only your achievements.
    I celebrate your heart.
    Your humility.
    Your kindness.
    Your constant, quiet watch over others
    .

    Happy Birthday, Sir.

    May Allah continue to preserve you, strengthen you, and elevate you.
    May your days be filled with peace, your years with purpose,
    And your legacy with even greater impact.

    And as you continue your journey, know this:

    You are seen.
    You are valued.

    And for some of us,
    You will always be,
    Our Humble Guardian.

    SALEH FAROUQ GAGARAWA (anipr)

  • Students in Shock as Polytechnic Lecturer Dies While Delivering Lecture

    Students in Shock as Polytechnic Lecturer Dies While Delivering Lecture

    A wave of grief has swept through Kogi State Polytechnic following the sudden death of a lecturer who collapsed in the classroom while teaching.

    The lecturer, identified as Anselm Ojodomo, reportedly slumped during a lecture session on Thursday, March 26, 2026, in the presence of stunned students.

    Eyewitness accounts indicate that the academic was actively delivering his lecture when he suddenly lost consciousness. Students immediately raised alarm, prompting swift intervention as he was rushed to a nearby medical facility. Despite efforts by medical personnel to revive him, he was later pronounced dead.

    The shocking incident triggered panic among students and staff, many of whom described the moment as deeply distressing. Some students were said to have broken down in tears, while others remained in disbelief over the sudden loss.

    Colleagues have since paid tribute to the late lecturer, describing him as a committed academic and a respected figure within the institution. His death has left a significant void in the academic community.

    The tragedy has also heightened concerns within the polytechnic, as reports suggest that the institution has experienced a number of recent losses among its staff. This pattern has sparked anxiety and renewed calls for attention to staff welfare and health monitoring in tertiary institutions.

    As of the time of filing this report, the management of Kogi State Polytechnic has yet to release an official detailed statement on the incident.

    The cause of death remains unconfirmed, though speculation points to a possible sudden health complication. Observers say the incident underscores the need for routine medical checks and improved emergency response systems within Nigeria’s higher education sector.

    Further updates are expected as authorities provide more clarity on the circumstances surrounding the lecturer’s death.

  • Olusegun Olayiwola: Reflections on a Tested Administrator by Kazeem Olalekan Israel

    In the evolving story of governance and development in Oyo State, certain individuals distinguish themselves not merely by the offices they occupy, but by the enduring impact of their service. Among such figures is Olusegun Olayiwola, a public administrator whose trajectory from grassroots leadership to State-level stewardship reflects a consistent pattern of purposeful action, institutional reform, and people-centered governance. His record, built over years of service across multiple strategic Ministries, offers a compelling illustration of what it means to translate public office into measurable progress.

    Long before he assumed responsibilities at the State-level, Olusegun Olayiwola’s imprint was already evident at the grassroots. As Chairman of Akinyele Local Government between 2007 and 2011, he confronted development challenges that had lingered for years, particularly in underserved communities where access to basic amenities remained limited. His administration initiated and completed a series of interventions that directly improved the quality of life of residents. Among the most impactful was the large-scale provision of portable water through the drilling and installation of boreholes and deep wells in over thirty communities. In areas such as Ikereku, long associated with acute water scarcity and locally referenced in ways that underscored the severity of the challenge, this intervention marked a turning point. Access to clean water reduced health risks, eased the daily burden on families, and restored a sense of dignity to communities that had long endured hardship.

    Complementing this was a deliberate focus on physical infrastructure. The construction of twenty-two asphaltic roads under his leadership improved connectivity across the local government area, linking rural settlements to economic hubs, educational institutions, and healthcare facilities. These roads did more than ease transportation; they facilitated commerce, enhanced mobility, and created new opportunities for local enterprise. In the education sector, the construction of 4 blocks classrooms in eighteen schools addressed issues of access and overcrowding, providing more conducive learning environments for pupils and laying a stronger foundation for human capital development. The completion of the Moniya Central Mosque further reflected an appreciation for the social and cultural dimensions of community life, reinforcing cohesion and shared identity.

    These early accomplishments established a governance style anchored in responsiveness and execution. They also provided a practical demonstration of how limited resources, when managed with clarity of purpose, can yield significant developmental outcomes. It is therefore unsurprising that his transition into State-level responsibilities came with heightened expectations, expectations he has consistently worked to meet across the various Ministries he has led.

    In the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, Olusegun Olayiwola confronted systemic inefficiencies that had long characterised land administration. Recognising the centrality of land ownership to economic activity, investment, and urban development, he spearheaded the digitalisation of the process for issuing Certificates of Occupancy. This reform simplified procedures, reduced processing time, and enhanced transparency, thereby limiting opportunities for administrative bottlenecks and informal practices. By making land documentation more accessible and reliable, the reform strengthened investor confidence and contributed to a more predictable business environment within the State.

    In addition, his introduction of land value capture mechanisms represented a forward-looking approach to revenue generation. By ensuring that increases in land value, often driven by public investments in infrastructure, translated into public revenue, the State was better positioned to fund further development initiatives. This approach underscored a broader philosophy of governance that links policy innovation with fiscal sustainability, ensuring that growth is both inclusive and financially grounded.

    Olayiwola’s tenure as Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Matters further demonstrated his capacity to manage complex governance structures that intersect with culture, tradition, and politics. In this role, he played a key part in resolving disputes within traditional institutions, facilitating the installation of over one hundred traditional rulers across the State. These interventions required not only administrative authority but also sensitivity, patience, and a deep understanding of customary systems. By fostering dialogue and building consensus, he helped stabilise traditional leadership structures, thereby reinforcing their role in community governance.

    At the same time, his coordination of the Joint Account Committee (JAC) strengthened intergovernmental relations between the State and local governments. Through regular engagement and structured financial discussions, he contributed to improved allocation processes and accountability in the management of public funds at the grassroots level. The supervision of the completion of the Olubadan Palace also reflected a commitment to preserving cultural heritage while supporting institutional continuity.

    In the Ministry of Establishment and Training, his focus shifted to the internal machinery of government, particularly the welfare and efficiency of the civil service. One of the most notable reforms during this period was the automation of gratuity and pension payments. This initiative addressed longstanding delays and improved transparency, ensuring that retirees received their entitlements in a more timely and predictable manner. By restoring confidence in the system, the reform also reinforced morale within the public service.

    Beyond this, efforts to recruit personnel into the lower cadre of the civil service helped strengthen institutional capacity, while training programs contributed to improved service delivery. Collaborations with international partners to support retirees further demonstrated a willingness to leverage external expertise in enhancing welfare outcomes. These initiatives collectively reflected a governance approach that values both efficiency and human dignity.

    In the education sector, Olusegun Olayiwola’s contributions have been equally significant. As Commissioner for Education, Science and Technology, he has overseen reforms aimed at restoring order and consistency within the system. The timely conduct of Basic Entrance Certificate Examination (BECE placement examinations), after years of irregular scheduling, provided much-needed stability for students and parents alike. Policies aimed at reducing distractions within schools, alongside initiatives to encourage greater parental involvement in academic performance, have contributed to a more structured learning environment.

    Efforts to improve the physical outlook of educational institutions and administrative offices, including targeted beautification projects such as rejuvenation of the abandoned fountain at the Ministry of Education, have also played a role in enhancing the overall perception of the sector. Such interventions, though sometimes understated, contribute to a culture of pride, discipline, and professionalism that is essential for sustained educational progress.

    Across these diverse roles, a consistent pattern emerges. Olusegun Olayiwola’s approach to governance is defined by a balance between infrastructure development, institutional reform, and social impact. Whether through the provision of water and roads at the local level, the modernisation of land administration systems, the coordination of local government finances, or the restructuring of educational processes, his work reflects a commitment to practical solutions and measurable outcomes.

    It is important to note that while political conversations naturally evolve as electoral cycles approach, the significance of leadership is best assessed through the lens of service and impact. In this regard, the body of work accumulated over the years offers valuable insight into capacity, experience, and readiness for higher responsibilities. The breadth of exposure across multiple sectors, combined with a demonstrated ability to deliver within each, positions Olusegun Olayiwola as a figure whose contributions have had far-reaching implications for governance and development in Oyo State.

    Ultimately, the story of his public service is one of continuity, growth, and sustained relevance. It is a narrative built not on isolated achievements, but on a sequence of interventions that have collectively improved lives, strengthened institutions, and advanced the state’s development trajectory. In a governance environment where expectations continue to rise, such a record provides a meaningful reference point for evaluating leadership and its potential to shape the future.

    Kazeem Olalekan Israel writes from Ibadan, Nigeria.

  • World Tuberculosis Day 2026: LTR Urges Nigeria to Break Silence, Close Detection Gap

    World Tuberculosis Day 2026: LTR Urges Nigeria to Break Silence, Close Detection Gap

    As the world marks World Tuberculosis Day 2026, the Leprosy and Tuberculosis Relief Nigeria has called for urgent, community-driven action to address what it describes as a “dangerous silence” surrounding tuberculosis (TB) in Nigeria.

    In a press statement released Tuesday, the organization stressed that TB remains not only a public health challenge but also a deeply rooted social issue marked by stigma, underreporting, and missed diagnoses.

    With the 2026 theme, “Yes, We Can End TB: Led by Countries, Powered by People,” LTR highlighted that thousands of TB cases in Nigeria go undetected annually, undermining national and global eradication efforts.

    “Tuberculosis is not just a disease. In Nigeria, it is a silence — a silence in homes where coughing is normalized, in communities where stigma speaks louder than science, and in data systems where thousands of cases remain unseen, unreported, and untreated,” the statement read.

    Community-Based Response Gains Momentum

    Despite the challenges, LTR pointed to emerging progress across several states, including Borno State, Yobe State, Gombe State, and Plateau State, where innovative, grassroots approaches are transforming TB detection and care.

    According to the organization, efforts are increasingly shifting from facility-based care to community-centered interventions. These include engaging informal healthcare providers such as patent medicine vendors, traditional birth attendants, and volunteer networks to identify and refer suspected TB cases.

    LTR explained that through targeted field engagements, mentorship, supportive supervision, and data harmonization, these local actors are becoming critical frontline responders in the fight against TB.

    “Registers are no longer just books; they are lifelines. Referrals are no longer routine; they are pathways to survival. Data is no longer static; it is driving action,” the statement noted.

    Tackling Stigma and Restoring Dignity

    The organization emphasized that beyond its medical impact, TB continues to erode dignity and social inclusion, often isolating patients and discouraging them from seeking care.

    Ending TB, LTR argued, requires more than treatment availability — it demands deliberate efforts to dismantle stigma, expand access, and build trust within communities.

    Executive Director of LTR, Dr. Tahir Dahiru, underscored the urgency of closing the detection gap.

    “Tuberculosis persists not because we lack solutions, but because we have not yet reached everyone who needs them. The real battle is not only against the disease, but against distance, stigma, and missed opportunities,” he said.

    He added that empowering communities and strengthening local systems are key to uncovering the so-called “missing cases” and ultimately ending the disease.

    Call for National Commitment

    LTR called on government stakeholders, partners, and the broader health sector to intensify investment in community-led interventions, integrate informal providers into the national health system, and ensure accurate, actionable data to guide decision-making.

    The organization stressed that eliminating TB in Nigeria will depend on timely referrals, early detection, and a collective refusal to accept missed cases.

    “Ending TB is not a possibility. It is a responsibility,” the statement concluded.

  • UK Moves to Raise Visa and Immigration Fees Amid Policy Tightening

    UK Moves to Raise Visa and Immigration Fees Amid Policy Tightening

    The government of United Kingdom is set to implement a fresh increase in visa and immigration fees, a move that is expected to significantly impact international students, skilled workers, and families seeking entry into the country.

    In an official update released by the UK Home Office, authorities confirmed that the revised fee structure is part of broader efforts to reduce reliance on taxpayer funding for the immigration system while strengthening border control and administrative efficiency.

    Key Changes in the New Fee Structure

    Under the proposed adjustments, several categories of visa applications will see notable increases:

    Student visas are expected to rise, affecting thousands of international applicants, particularly from countries like Nigeria, which remains a major source of UK-bound students.

    Skilled Worker visas will also become more expensive, potentially affecting employers and foreign professionals.

    Family visas and settlement applications are set for upward review, raising the cost of long-term relocation.

    The Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS)—a mandatory fee granting access to the UK’s healthcare system—may also see further adjustments.

    Government Justification

    According to the UK Home Office, the fee increases are aimed at ensuring that “those who benefit from the UK’s immigration system contribute more directly to its cost.” Officials argue that the policy will help maintain high-quality immigration services without placing additional burden on public finances.

    The government has also linked the changes to its broader migration control strategy, which includes efforts to reduce net migration and tighten eligibility requirements across various visa routes.

    Concerns and Reactions

    The decision has sparked concern among education stakeholders, migration experts, and advocacy groups. Universities across the United Kingdom fear the higher costs could deter international students, a key revenue source for many institutions.

    Immigration analysts warn that the rising financial barriers may disproportionately affect applicants from developing countries, including Nigeria, where currency fluctuations already make UK study and relocation expensive.

    Employers reliant on foreign talent have also expressed worries that increased visa costs could worsen labour shortages in critical sectors such as healthcare, engineering, and information technology.

    Broader Implications

    The UK remains one of the most sought-after destinations for education and employment globally. However, repeated increases in visa-related costs may influence prospective migrants to consider alternative destinations such as Canada and Australia, both of which have actively positioned themselves as attractive options for international students and skilled workers.

    Conclusion

    As the United Kingdom pushes ahead with its immigration reform agenda, the latest fee hike signals a clear shift toward a more self-funded system. While the government insists the move is necessary for sustainability, its broader impact on migration patterns, international education, and global talent mobility remains to be seen.

    Stakeholders across sectors will be closely watching how the new policy reshapes the UK’s position in the competitive global migration landscape.

  • Bayero University Kano Expels 174 Students Over Academic Misconduct, Other Offences

    Bayero University Kano Expels 174 Students Over Academic Misconduct, Other Offences

    By Staff Reporter

    Kano, Nigeria — Bayero University Kano (BUK) has expelled no fewer than 174 students for various offences, including examination malpractice, falsification of records, and other violations of the institution’s code of conduct.

    The decision was approved by the university’s management following recommendations from its disciplinary committees, which investigated cases across multiple faculties.

    According to sources within the institution, the affected students were found guilty after thorough reviews and were handed expulsion as the highest disciplinary measure in line with the university’s regulations.

    University authorities reiterated their commitment to maintaining academic integrity and upholding standards, stressing that misconduct of any kind would not be tolerated.

    “The university remains resolute in enforcing discipline and ensuring that certificates awarded reflect both character and learning,” a senior official said.

    The development serves as a stern warning to students, as the institution continues to intensify efforts to curb examination malpractice and unethical behavior on campus.

    Education stakeholders have reacted to the move, with some commending the university for taking decisive action, while others called for stronger preventive measures and student orientation programs.

    BUK, one of Nigeria’s leading federal universities, has in recent years strengthened its disciplinary processes to safeguard its academic reputation.

  • Nigeria’s Elite Ivory Towers: Covenant, Landmark Lead Latest 2026 Private University Rankings

    Nigeria’s Elite Ivory Towers: Covenant, Landmark Lead Latest 2026 Private University Rankings

    Nigeria’s private university landscape has witnessed a significant consolidation of excellence, with a handful of institutions continuing to dominate national and emerging global rankings in the 2025–2026 academic cycle.

    Recent assessments drawn from credible ranking platforms such as AD Scientific Index, uniRank, and other global evaluative systems reveal a clear hierarchy among the country’s over 100 licensed private universities, with Covenant University maintaining its long-standing dominance.

    Covenant University Retains Top Spot

    For yet another year, Covenant University, located in Ota, Ogun State, has emerged as the leading private university in Nigeria, driven by its strong research output, international collaborations, and consistent global visibility.

    Closely trailing is Landmark University, also in Ogun State, which continues to build a formidable reputation, particularly in agriculture, science, and innovation-driven research.

    Top 10 Private Universities in Nigeria (2026)

    The latest ranking places the following institutions among Nigeria’s best-performing private universities:

    1. Covenant University
    2. Landmark University
    3. Babcock University
    4. Afe Babalola University
    5. American University of Nigeria
    6. Bowen University
    7. Pan-Atlantic University
    8. Redeemer’s University
    9. Godfrey Okoye University
    10. Maryam Abacha American University of Nigeria

    Rising Competitiveness in Private Education

    The latest rankings highlight a growing competitiveness within Nigeria’s private education sector. Institutions such as Afe Babalola University and American University of Nigeria continue to distinguish themselves through world-class infrastructure and internationally aligned curricula.

    Similarly, Pan-Atlantic University has maintained a strong niche in business and management education, while Redeemer’s University is gaining traction in scientific research and postgraduate training.

    Global Visibility Still Limited

    Despite the progress, only a handful of Nigerian private universities—most notably Covenant University and Landmark University—feature prominently in global university rankings. This underscores a persistent gap between Nigeria’s private institutions and leading public universities in terms of global research impact and citation metrics.

    Methodology and Ranking Variations

    Experts caution that rankings may vary depending on the methodology employed. While platforms like AD Scientific Index prioritize research output and citations, others such as uniRank emphasize web presence, institutional popularity, and accessibility.

    Nonetheless, the consistency in the appearance of top institutions across multiple rankings reinforces their credibility and sustained performance.

    As Nigeria’s higher education sector evolves, private universities are increasingly asserting their relevance through innovation, infrastructure, and academic excellence. With Covenant University firmly at the helm, the race for academic prestige among private institutions is expected to intensify in the coming years.

  • No Official “50-Country Visa Bond List” — U.S. Policy Expansion Claims Remain Unverified Amid Global Speculation

    No Official “50-Country Visa Bond List” — U.S. Policy Expansion Claims Remain Unverified Amid Global Speculation

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Claims that the United States has expanded its controversial visa bond requirement to 50 countries worldwide remain unsubstantiated, as no official list has been released by the U.S. Department of State.

    The visa bond policy—formally known as the Visa Bond Pilot Program—was introduced during the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump. It empowers consular officers to require certain applicants for short-term visas to deposit a refundable bond ranging from $5,000 to $15,000, aimed at curbing visa overstays.

    However, despite growing media reports and social media claims suggesting a sweeping expansion to dozens of countries, U.S. authorities have not confirmed any such comprehensive rollout.

    Policy Background: Targeting Visa Overstays

    The visa bond initiative was designed as a risk mitigation tool, targeting countries with historically high rates of visa overstays. Rather than imposing blanket restrictions, the policy allows case-by-case discretion by consular officers.

    During its pilot phase, the program reportedly focused on a limited number of countries, primarily in Africa and parts of Asia, identified through U.S. overstay data.

    Countries Previously Linked to the Policy

    While no official “50-country list” exists, earlier policy discussions and pilot reports have referenced the following countries as potentially affected or under consideration:

    Africa:

    Nigeria

    Ghana

    Liberia

    Sierra Leone

    Sudan

    Eritrea

    Chad

    Middle East:

    Iran

    Syria

    Yemen

    Asia:

    Afghanistan

    These mentions were based on overstay risk assessments, not a formally published or expanded list.

    No Verified Expansion to 50 Countries

    Multiple checks across official U.S. government channels, including statements and policy releases, show no confirmation of a 50-country expansion. Analysts warn that widely circulated lists online are often:

    Speculative compilations

    Based on outdated pilot data

    Or misinterpretations of internal policy discussions

    Immigration experts emphasize that any major expansion of such a policy would typically require formal announcement, documentation, and diplomatic communication—none of which has occurred at the scale being reported.

    Implications for Nigeria and Other Countries

    For countries like Nigeria, which has previously appeared in overstay-related discussions, the absence of a confirmed expansion means:

    No blanket visa bond requirement currently applies to all applicants

    Any bond decision remains discretionary and limited

    Standard U.S. visa procedures remain largely unchanged


    Conclusion

    While the U.S. visa bond policy remains a controversial tool in immigration control, claims of a sweeping expansion to 50 countries are, at this stage, unsupported by official evidence.

    Until the U.S. Department of State publishes a verified list, reports suggesting a broad global rollout should be treated with caution and scrutiny.

    Editor’s Note:
    Readers are advised to rely on official U.S. government sources for updates on visa policies, as misinformation surrounding immigration rules can have serious consequences for prospective travelers.

  • Naira Appreciates at Parallel Market Amid Renewed FX Inflows

    Naira Appreciates at Parallel Market Amid Renewed FX Inflows

    The Nigerian naira recorded a modest appreciation at the parallel market, signaling a short-term easing of pressure on the local currency amid improved foreign exchange (FX) liquidity.

    Market sources in major trading hubs across Lagos and Abuja indicated that the naira strengthened against the US dollar, with rates improving slightly compared to previous trading sessions. Currency dealers attributed the uptick to increased dollar supply from diaspora remittances and reduced speculative demand.

    The appreciation comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria continues efforts to stabilize the FX market through policy adjustments, including tighter regulation of Bureau De Change (BDC) operators and enhanced monitoring of inflows.

    Analysts note that while the parallel market remains highly sensitive to demand-supply dynamics, recent interventions and improved confidence may be contributing to the naira’s rebound. However, they caution that the gains could be temporary without sustained structural reforms and consistent FX inflows.

    At the official window, the naira has shown relative stability, although a gap persists between official and parallel market rates—a reflection of underlying liquidity constraints and ongoing market segmentation.

    Economic experts emphasize that long-term currency stability will depend on boosting non-oil exports, increasing foreign investment inflows, and maintaining transparent monetary policies.

    The development offers cautious optimism for businesses and households grappling with exchange rate volatility, as any sustained appreciation could help moderate inflationary pressures tied to import costs.

  • Tinubu’s Abacha Tactics Against Opposition by Farooq A. Kperogi

    By Farooq A. Kperogi

    Although structural, political, and economic conditions appear to constrain any credibly concerted impediment to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 reelection chances, at least from my admittedly imperfect reading of the auguries, Tinubu still seems so insecure that he is borrowing a leaf from former Head of State Sani Abacha, his arch enemy, to annihilate the opposition and smooth his path to reelection.

    There are at least three reasons why I think the odds are, at least for now, in Tinubu’s favor.

    First, the opposition hasn’t coalesced around a single, powerful, unifying candidate, such as the APC did with Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, less than a year before the next presidential election. Meanwhile, Tinubu is already the undisputed candidate of his party and has effectively been in campaign mode, with all the advantages that incumbency confers.

    Second, Tinubu’s economic policies have so pauperized a vast swath of the electorate that many voters are even more susceptible to financial inducement in exchange for their votes than at any time in recent memory. In a context where hunger and desperation shape electoral behavior, the moral calculus of voting changes.

    Given that Tinubu commands a larger financial war chest than any individual opposition figure and perhaps more than all of them combined, he is better positioned to prevail in a contest defined by voter inducement. It often makes little difference to voters that the source of their hardship is also the source of the money offered to temporarily alleviate it.

    Third, the institutions of the state that determine electoral outcomes inspire little confidence in their independence. INEC, which showed flashes of autonomy during Professor Attahiru Jega’s tenure, particularly in overseeing the 2015 transition, no longer enjoys the same level of public trust.

    The judiciary, which ought to serve as the final arbiter of electoral disputes, is widely perceived as susceptible to political manipulation. Whether this perception is entirely fair is beside the point; what matters is that it is widespread and shapes expectations about electoral outcomes.

    Given these seemingly insurmountable advantages, one might expect Tinubu to sit comfortably and await what could amount to an electoral formality. Yet his actions suggest a deep, crippling anxiety about 2027. He appears determined not just to win an election but to eliminate the possibility of a meaningful contest.

    He is stealthily but systematically weakening all the political parties that could provide viable platforms for his opponents in 2027.

    The Labor Party, which rode the crest of the wave of Peter Obi’s popularity to emerge from near obscurity to national prominence in 2023, has been mired in irresolvably debilitating internal crises. These crises may have internal origins, but their persistence and intensity have effectively neutralized the party as a coherent opposition force.

    The Peoples Democratic Party is also deeply fractured. Through the outsized influence of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, who retains significant leverage within the party despite serving in an APC administration, the PDP has been thrown into a prolonged internal dissension that has eroded its capacity to function as a credible opposition platform.

    It would be an exaggeration to say that only APC sympathizers remain in the PDP, but it is accurate to say that its internal divisions have weakened its ability to mount a coordinated challenge.

    The African Democratic Congress (ADC) had begun to present itself as a refuge for politicians displaced from the PDP, the Labor Party, and even factions within the APC. That possibility now appears imperiled by an emerging leadership crisis.

    While David Mark is widely recognized as the party’s national chairman, Nafiu Bala Gombe, a former deputy national chairman, is contesting that leadership in court. Given how the courts have ruled in the past in respect of the PDP and LP, which many people suspect is induced from the Tinubu camp, it won’t come to me as a surprise if Gombe gets judicial imprimatur to displace Mark.

    Allegations that Gombe is aligned with Tinubu or with interests sympathetic to him come primarily from partisan sources within the ADC and have not been independently substantiated. Still, given the pattern observable in other opposition parties, such suspicions are not entirely surprising. If the courts eventually validate Gombe’s claim, the ADC could become inhospitable to the very opposition figures who had begun to see it as a viable platform, as a safe political asylum.

    The cumulative effect of these developments is that major opposition figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi may find themselves without stable or credible party platforms on which to base presidential bids. Even if parties remain on paper, they risk becoming hollow shells, fielding “dummy” candidates who pose no real threat and merely sustain the illusion of competition. That’s banana-republic-level perversion of basic democratic norms.

    This trajectory calls to mind the 1998 transition program under Sani Abacha. In that case, the regime licensed and controlled the only legal political parties, suppressed dissent, and orchestrated a process in which all five parties eventually adopted Abacha as their sole presidential candidate. It was a carefully managed political ritual dubiously designed to legitimize continued rule. Abacha didn’t get elected because he died before that could happen.

    Nigeria is not under military rule, and the present circumstances are not, by any means, wholly identical. But the logic of narrowing the political field to the point where competition becomes illusory bears an uncomfortable resemblance.

    There is no point in pretending to be a democracy if something as basic as the latitude to run for the office of president is strewn with avoidable cataracts and oxbow lakes, to paraphrase Nigeria’s most famous sesquipedalian Patrick Obahiagbon.

    The danger for Tinubu is that such a strategy, even if it succeeds electorally, could strip his reelection of the faintest scintilla of credibility and render his administration vulnerable to an enervating crisis of legitimacy, including possible international scrutiny. Electoral victory is one thing; perceived legitimacy is another, and the latter is harder to manufacture.

    It is true that incumbents often seek every available advantage. Olusegun Obasanjo’s 2003 reelection was marred by widely reported irregularities. He was so intent on extracting electoral insurance against Muhammadu Buhari in 2003 (even though Buhari was actually unelectable at that time) that he got more votes in native Ogun State than there were registered voters. But at least he allowed Buhari to run against him on a prominent political platform.

    Goodluck Jonathan also benefited from incumbency advantages. Like Obasanjo, he faced recognizable opposition candidates on functioning party platforms. Even in 2019, when Atiku Abubakar mounted a serious challenge to Muhammadu Buhari, the contest, despite its controversies, retained the basic structure of competitive politics.

    Tinubu risks earning a dubious distinction as Nigeria’s only civilian president who appears unwilling to tolerate even the minimum conditions for credible electoral competition. That is a striking departure for a man whose political reputation was built, in part, on opposition to military authoritarianism.

    He still has time to recalibrate. The more prudent path is to allow opposition parties to organize freely and to make his case for reelection on the basis of his record. That, more than any tactical maneuvering, is what confers durable political legitimacy.