Top 15 cardinals likely to succeed Pope Francis in 2025

The Nation Newspaper

The conclave to elect the 267th Pope will begin today, May 7, following the conclusion of the Novemdiales Masses held to pray for the eternal repose of the late Pope Francis.

The date was formally set during the fifth General Congregation on Monday morning, attended by approximately 180 cardinals, just over a hundred of whom are eligible to vote. The secretive gathering will take place in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel, which will remain closed to visitors during those solemn days.

While no one can predict the outcome of the next conclave, about 15 cardinals are among the most talked-about candidates to succeed Pope Francis. Whether the Church leans toward continuity or change, these leaders represent the global reach, diverse priorities, and theological tensions that will shape the future of Catholicism.

Many believe Matteo Zuppi is likely the frontrunner, as he checks many boxes: pastoral, diplomatic, Francis-aligned yet respected across ideological lines, and a unifying figure in Europe.

Here are top 15 cardinals likely to succeed Pope Francis in 2025
EUROPE:

1. Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70 – Vatican Secretary of State
   A powerful diplomat and Francis’s closest aide; widely seen as the institutional frontrunner.
   Chance: 22%
2. Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy), 69 – Archbishop of Bologna
   Francis’s peace envoy to Ukraine; popular, pastoral, and reform-friendly.
   Chance: 18%
3. Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg), 66 – Jesuit Archbishop
   A progressive voice for reform; close to Pope Francis and active in global synods.
   Chance: 12%
4. Jean-Marc Aveline (France), 66 – Archbishop of Marseille
   Interfaith advocate with strong social justice leanings; low media profile.
   Chance: 7%
5. Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60 – Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
   High visibility during the Israel-Gaza war; admired for diplomacy in conflict zones.
   Chance: 6%

Read Also: 20 things to know about ‘Asian Pope Francis’ Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle

6. Mario Grech (Malta), 68 – Bishop Emeritus of Gozo
   Former Synod leader; seen as a centrist and potential consensus candidate.
   Chance: 5%

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7. Peter Erdo (Hungary), 72 – Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
   Conservative canon law expert; popular among traditionalists.
   Chance: 4%
8. Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69 – Prefect for Eastern Churches
   Discreet but influential; long diplomatic experience in Eastern Europe.
   Chance: 3%
9. Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75 – Bishop of Stockholm
   Sweden’s first cardinal; doctrinally strict but bridge-building.
   Chance: 2%

ASIA:

10. Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67 – Archbishop Emeritus of Manila
    Charismatic and media-savvy; often dubbed “the Asian Francis.”
    Chance: 15%
11. Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76 – Archbishop of Yangon
    Human rights advocate in troubled Myanmar; strong regional leader.
    Chance: 3%

AFRICA:

12. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo), 65 – Archbishop of Kinshasa
    Prominent in the African Church and a key Francis adviser.
     Chance: 10%
13. Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76 – Archbishop Emeritus of Cape Coast
    Longtime Vatican figure; respected for social justice work.
    Chance: 5%
14. Robert Sarah (Guinea), 79 – Former Prefect of Divine Worship
    Popular among conservatives; age and ideology may hinder chances.
    Chance: 2%

AMERICA:

15. Robert Francis Prevost (USA), 69 – Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops
    Current Vatican heavyweight overseeing bishop appointments worldwide.
    Chance: 6%